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This report examines the shift from a ‘Goldilocks’ phase to a more challenging macro environment, with markets pricing in potential rate hikes. It highlights that inflation remains within tolerance, with supply-driven pressures limiting aggressive tightening. Drawing parallels with past episodes, it explains why the RBI may prefer regulatory measures over rate hikes. It concludes that slowing job growth and tighter credit conditions could weigh on consumption and the broader outlook.
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